Electoral authoritarianism

Freedom is under attack across Southeast Asia – By Moritz Kleine-Brockhoff

Several states in Southeast Asia show little prospect of political reform and pluralism: Singapore, Vietnam, Laos and Brunei continue to be governed by authoritarian regimes. The international community more or less accepts repression there. These days hardly anybody notices, much less complains, when opposition politician Chee Soon Juan goes to jail once again in Singapore or dissidents remain incarcerated in Vietnam.

Measured repression – enough to ensure political control at home, not enough to cause international ostracism – is a common recipe in Southeast Asia. In Singapore and Malaysia, tightly controlled elections are part of a mix political scientist Andreas Schedler refers to as “electoral authoritarianism”: Privileged ruling parties oppress the opposition, elections are unfair, the judiciary is biased and citizens lack freedom of assembly, speech or the press.

Most ASEAN leaders seem to regard the combination of political repression and capitalist economies as the best way to ensure stability and prosperity. China’s success may inspire them. Has it escaped ASEAN leaders that worldwide 30 of the 40 richest countries are stable, liberal democracies? In Southeast Asia, the country that coped best with the recent global financial crisis was Indonesia, the most democratic state in the region.

Now Myanmar, ASEAN’s worst human rights abuser, wants to move from military dictatorship to electoral authoritarianism. Myanmar’s elections planned for later this year will be a farce. Yet, for a while, the outlook was not all bad. Despite the house arrest and the exclusion of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a majority within her National League for Democracy (NLD) favored contesting the elections.

Suu Kyi had written to dictator General Than Shwe, saying she was prepared to work with him to get international sanctions lifted. The US had reached out to the junta; and the EU was about to do so. Since the generals envision a “disciplined” democracy, expectations were low.

But the junta still managed to fall short by introducing laughable election and party laws. They seem to require the NLD to expel Suu Kyi so it can reregister as a party.

That demand was a mistake. The laws alienated even those who favor realpolitik. Plenty of NLD politicians and many officials in the ASEAN region as well as in the West were willing to give Myanmar’s transition – however flawed – a chance. To do so now has become much more difficult, if not impossible.

Dictator Than Shwe wants to have his cake and eat it, too. He wants the NLD to contest the election in order to give the polls some semblance of credibility. He allowed 300 NLD offices to reopen. But the general also wants a very weak NLD, with Suu Kyi completely out of the picture.

Trying to force the party to expel its leader, however, is unreasonable and might turn out to be too much to ask for. According to her lawyer, Suu Kyi said that she “would not even think of registering under these unjust laws” and that “the party would have no dignity if it registers and participates in the election.”

This time, it is Suu Kyi who has made a mistake. She should have agreed to be temporarily expelled from her party and advised the NLD to register. There will be change in Myanmar; not trying to shape it is unwise. Anything is better then the status quo. Even with Suu Kyi under arrest, the NLD could use her image during the campaign. She could rejoin her party upon her release, expected after the polls.

There is no plan B. Worse, as NLD-registration now is unlikely, the party is headed for oblivion. That is a shame.

In Southeast Asia, electoral authoritarianism was installed by Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohammed, Indonesia’s Suharto and, more recently, by Cambodia’s Hun Sen. When formidable opposition politicians defy the odds and manage to mount a challenge, a draconian response by those in power is usually the norm.

In Malaysia, a biased judiciary currently supports an attempt to end the political career of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. The proceedings, dubbed the “Sodomy II trial,” are disgusting. In an equally appalling trial in Cambodia, opposition leader Sam Rainsy was, in absentia, sentenced to two years’ jail. Further charges have been filed.

In both countries, much is at stake. Malaysia’s opposition coalition Pakatan, which could win the next election and build a more liberal democracy and a freer society, would be weakened without Anwar. In Cambodia, Prime Minister Hun Sen is trying to establish a one party state.

Several ASEAN countries have, for the past 15 years or so, teased democrats with promising developments, only to be followed by disappointments. In the Philippines, a corrupt president named Joseph Estrada was replaced by Gloria Arroyo, who promised good governance. She turned out to be just as greedy.

Thailand appeared to have moved past its coup era but not quite. Unsurprisingly, military intervention in 2006 did not solve Thailand’s political crisis but helped prolong it. Today, instability remains. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva leads the government; he clearly lost the 2007 election. Last month his main opponent, fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra, mobilized his supporters once again. More than 100,000 of his so-called “Red Shirts” took to the streets of Bangkok. Millions stayed at home for a couple of days, fearing violence.

In Malaysia, the election result in 2008 at least brought more pluralism and seemed to force the ruling parties to embark on a reform path. By now it’s become clear that the UMNO party, and therefore Barisan Nasional or BN, will not move beyond window dressing. Prime Minister Najib Razak recently spoke out against reinstating local elections, saying “the focus should be on providing the best service to the people instead of giving importance to the political process.” Najib’s distaste for elections is not surprising. He is comfortable governing without a popular mandate.

Moritz Kleine-Brockhoff, based in Bangkok, is a project director at Germany’s Friedrich-Naumann Foundation.